1. You cant predict gamer tendencies when it comes to custom maps. The lack of consistency can make any game super popular or not played at all, no matter the quality level. Ive been a part of war3, dawn of war and SC2 modding and mapping communities and seen many cheap maps overshadow huge TCs just because player trends shift all the time.
2. Popularity of the game itself is incomparable to the era that war3 came out. High quality F2P ganes did not exist back then to compete with the map scene. Mapping WAS the F2P alternative to buying new games. There is no guarantee WC3R will retain high population over the long run or that the map community will reclaim its former glory. RTS is generally a dying genre, MOBA and Battle Royale is the current new trend. Custom maps will always be a passion driven niche. Even Valve has stopped making games and simply sits on the success of Steam and DotA2.
3. Icefrog was headhunted by Valve. Your example is wrong because ice frog did not go to Valve to get DotA made, Valve went to Icefrog to get DotA 2 made. The company hired a modder just like Blizzard hired modders now to help remake War3. Icefrog would have continued dota map support if not for the opportunity.
4. Money solves nothing. DotA2 has a market for assets that you can sell. Great for those who put in the work, right?! Wrong. The faxt that monetization happens means it draws professionals into a hobby narket and to keep things organized by quality, assets are user ranked. This makes the pros boost to the top, and any casual making things out of passion or fun float to the bottom. The system revolces around creators advertising their content to boost popularityvin order to get monetized. This similar phenomenon happened for a few SC2 maps that became very ambitious, such as Starcraft Universe, which I worked on. I dont see it as a good thing because as a map maker hobbyist, you cant compete against professionals and it would flood the market with more supply than demand.
You cant just pick and choose which mappers to moneize and which dont get support. That defeats the goal you intended, to support mappers hard work. Even crappy maps have effort poured into it, and its unrealistic to compensate everyone equally. Monetizing popular maps only sows jealousy and frustration for the rest of talented but unsung mappers out there. Patreon is imo the best alternative.
Turning mapping into a business (one that is dependant on a huge custom map playing fanbase, mind you) is not sustainable. There was a planned marketplace for SC2 which I looked forward to. Im happy they didnt go that direction.
Nice post.
1. Of course you can. The thing is, quality is not the only parameter and i agree with you. Also authors have different styles, some do stuff for the people, some are passionate about something specific, like anime based maps, some have a tendency to do whatever they like at the moment with a dose of their peculiar quality standarts, etc. Authors with a tendency to be people pleasers or that have some kind of "empathy" with/in respect of the "needs" of others will naturally make popular maps. Some authros don't give a straw on popularity, but achieve some marginal popularity with quality, innovation, or even constant hard work and tuning. It is chaotic indeed, but you can observe trends, otherwise am i schizophrenic? Maybe.
2/3. At this time you can see that lots of ventures start with a natural passion, but then either the author or other people (if the author is too reluctant but talented, is not rare that there will start appearing imitators) will crystallize such emotions and passions with something tangible. The author will decide to get serious or not with his/her drives and if those drives will be the basis for his/her own material sustenance and spiritual realization. Or atleast will decide the extent of that.
Youtube started, majorly, as a random page where people will just upload their vivencies, basically a part of "themselves" (favorite music, random sketches, iconic gameplays, etc), but right now it is colonized with more professional, serious, business like and value extracting pages, ie. CollegeHumor, Music channels, Gaming channels. You could say that these people saw the popularity (either at the start or along the way of uploading their content) of their content, divised a potential gain, and opted to become professionals about that an to pursue such gain. Professionality often will relate with dedication, appeal to the masses and massivity (read: continious content/product that is standarized), and tangible gains (read: money, reputation, rankings, numbers, etc). I mean, i'm not judging anything, i'm just saying that it is reasonable to the point of obviousness that something is going to happen, something serious. Blizzard is a company, a professional entity, so their actions will (and i'm pretty sure, based on my loose definition or elucidation of professionality that they are indeed professionals) directly or implicitly pursue tangible results, bottom line, and large scale deployment of resources. Blizzard was never shy on exploiting the WC3 mod scene at any stage (they patronized Dota tournaments, they use quality mods as advertisement). It also seems that they are now
a little bit less shy about it, judging by the current case of Starcraft II.
Also what made Dota what is
today? Was it the popularity of the concept back then? The originality (it was based on the map the gave name to the genre if i recall correctly)? Was it the dedication and pushy "go-getter" qualities of the author or even some other behind the scenes people (LIKE ie. a sponsoring dude that make a deal with IceFrog to organize this or that event)? A combination of all that? Another thing? Is Dota special ontologically? Was IceFrog lucky? What tells you that what happened to Dota could not happen to another map or venture in general?
4. Money is just an average standarized way to measure value. Sometimes even power or influence, but here it's even a below average standart. Here i agree with you from a different point of view.
In the end people/companies will decide if they are recieving the value they are expecting for their actions, be either money, reputation, the favour of like minded people, etc. From a company like Blizzard, what we can deduct they are expecting to recieve as value for their actions? Money? Good feedback from their fans (they resented dearly the Diablo Immortal case, even "emotionally", as they were caught manipulating the likes and dislikes of the trailer)? About the good feedback i think most companies care about the community in general as a concept, and not about the opinion of one or two game experts/ultra dedicated and devouted fans/ the "guild/council" of ultra passionate modders, so here i differ.
I don't know if introducing paid modding is per se something that threatening. Even if it is a hobby, you will, by definition, devout time and effort, which is work, which is value one way or another. Call it a new principle of thermodynamics if you will: work is value, and good work is good value. But again, you decide if that value reported is enough or not. If not, you can either move or push yourself to get it. In your examples i think i get you are kind lying yourself a bit. If you care about like minded people to like your work, then the hobby map maker (in the sense you are using the concept) should be authentically satisfied by getting those important and personal likes. If you care about that and money, or about beign somebody with some kind of expertise, then why not pushing something more risky, devouting more resources, time, etc. If you are ie. already working as a lawyer, then you must evaluate your opportunity costs, or simply decide what (or how, if you want to pursue lots of endeavours) you want to do.
But i think that introducing paid mods as it stands is a lazy way to monetize, and thus unsustainable in the long run just like you said.
Why? because Blizzard wants a share (on which they might, pressumably, try to assert themselves as the protagonists) but their operation will reduce to: see the party, say go gets to drink and who not, and then fucking dissapear. In a mod scene like this, sustained by sites like this, the protagonists are the authors and the people that work to get some kind of content rolling, like this site itself. The proof of that bold comment, is, again, this site and many others, that have survived almost entirely, by indeed the protagonists. Me of course. So let them be Blizzard. Come on.
Should they introduce actual work and promotion to the scene (which they are kind of doing right now, i'm happy, look at this emoticon of happiness:

), which simply traduces on CONTENT, then their share will be justified, a balance of all elements and interveners is achieved, and the system becomes sustainable for atleast some period, and i can now sleep after 3 days.