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Complete and Utter Failure

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A brief overview.

Here is the Wikipedia article on peak oil.

To answer critics: It might happen. That is enough reason to take action. Gamble with your life on your own time.

It is important to realize that if a grassroots movement is successful, that is, if we manage to do it, the negative effects that people may doubt can be stopped. If we do it and we don't see oil decline effects, then that does not mean the skeptics were right, or that we overreacted, but can easily mean that we actually stopped it.

Oil is going to start depleting. This is fact. The question of when is not entirely answered. With the number of experts saying that it is going to start very soon, if it hasn't already started, I'm going to start acting like it is. Remember how experts talk and nobody listens and bad thing happen? Yeah, I'd like to not take my chances this time and not have bad things happen as a result.

If we do not do anything to change, we will not be able to do everything we want with oil, if anything. If we go with an organized collapse, which is unlikely in the event of a collapse at this point, then we would not come to a full stop in activities involving oil. We would instead partition our oil to that which is absolutely necessary. We would cut back on luxuries first. This means no internet. Yeah. You heard me. NO INTERNET. This means, from your perspective, that we are dead. Everyone on the internet dead, and you did nothing about it. Thanks a lot.

The likelihood that a collapse is controlled approaches zero as the population increases. In the event that billions of people are uncontrollable, everything that relies on oil will collapse at once. At this point you might want to wonder exactly how it is that you are fed. I'm willing to bet good money that your food production relies in some way on oil. For example, does your local farmer use a tractor that runs on gas? When he can't run his tractor, how much food can he make? I, for one, like to eat food. It tastes good and delays death.

This problem cannot be solved by any amount of government or money. No regulations or funding will allow our way of life to continue. When oil starts to deplete, government will not be able to produce oil, and neither will money. It will simply disappear. Government and money will completely fail us. It's not a matter of anarchy or agalmics sending "civilization" back hundreds or years. We will simply not be able to do it. Forget government and money. We will not possess the ability to live this way.

What do we do, when our government and money fails us?

But of course. We do what we have always done and will always do. We will take things into our own hands. For the sake of your survival, I strongly suggest that you make damn sure that you, and the people around you, are able to sustain yourselves. Your government and money will not be able to.

In recent years my mother has taken up participation in the local community. I have instructed her to force this movie upon the people of the community, because, "I have to live here, damn it!" Seriously, force people at gunpoint or something. Your life depends on it.

While you're at it, you might want to ensure that your community will have locally generated reliable electricity. You might also ensure that your ISP has electricity. Don't die on me. :(

You might also experiment with preaching/practicing agalmics and/or anarchy. Don't knock it 'till you've tried it!

Above all else, we don't want the Amish gloating.


Disclaimer:
This is a message to the people of The United States of America. People in other countries might head this caution, but I'm focusing on the USA because I know the laws. If your country restricts you from doing what you need to save your life, I don't know what to tell you besides, "Yeah, you might want to fix that. I suggest grassroots consented anarchy."
 
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avatar132833_40.gif ?
 
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Well, we could always just power everything with nuclear fusion and hydrogen fuel cells.
Looks like someone someone didn't watch the movie. First, hydrogen is in not a form of energy. It is a form of energy storage. Second, how much do you know about nuclear power to make a claim like that? You vastly underestimate just how much oil is used. It turns out oil is responsible for just about every single aspect of modern society. Yes, everything. This is what we stand to lose. Everything.
hydrogen fuel cells ftw

its just a matter of determination and paragonistic scientists and we'll be there before we know it
Oil will be gone before we know it. It wont happen over a few years or decades, it wont be a roll down the hill. It will happen instantaneously. It will be a fall off a cliff.

In the time it will take to get our entire system to use energy that is not derived from fossil fuels, it will be far too late. Unless there is a grassroots change right now, it will be far too late. What's fun is, we wont be able to rebuild at all. We have used up the oil we have, and will not be able to use it as ravenously as we did this time. There will not be an oil boom to allow us to grow. The time it will take to rebuild to this level if there is a collapse, will be longer and longer and longer the more time we waste living like we do now. We can work much faster with oil than we can without. We basically cannot work at all without oil. If we work now to change, we can avoid the centuries it will take to develop back to this level in the event of a collapse.
Just don't tell me you didn't expect this.
I honestly didn't. I figured things would slowly get worse and worse, and this would prompt people to take action to save ourselves, but it wont be like that. It will go from how it is now, to nothing, overnight, and we wont be able to save ourselves.

Imagine I have a nanobot. I can use this nanobot to make a complete copy of itself. This process takes one day. In two days, I can have four nanobots. In three days, eight nanobots. Four days, sixteen nanobots.

A single nanobot, because of its size, is not very much use at all. Let's say I need one billion nanobots to form the objects I need to survive. NanoToaster, NanoBlanket, NanoClothes, Nanoetc..

From this one nanobot, it will take me thirty days to create enough nanobots to have my very own NanoLuxuryTM. It will take another 33 days to use that army of nanobots to create enough nanobots for six billion people to have their own NanoLuxuries. Wait. I've underestimated exponential growth. Let's say I need my NanoLuxury to survive, and can only offer you one nanobot at this time. You will have to wait 30 days until you can survive. This is thirty days for six billion people. That's about 180 billions days before everyone on Earth can survive.

Once everyone on Earth has their own NanoLuxury, creating new ones for babies will take thirty days. This is where we are at right now. Civilization is able to make what it needs for the new babies because it has the systems already in place to make that stuff. When oil begins to deplete, civilization will not slow down, it will come to a full stop. This means waiting 180 billion days for civilization to rebuild.

Our NanoLuxuries will all crash some day. The new NanoLuxiry2.0 units will not crash. If we start making them now, we can have a NanoLuxury2.0 for everyone on Earth in 63 days. (30 days to make one, 33 days to make 6 billion more.) When the crash occurs, we will need to start using the available NanoLuxury2.0 units, and the time to have them replicate will be over. If we don't make 6 billion by the crash, the people on the waiting list will die long before they ever see a NanoLuxury2.0 unit.

Exponential growth aside, this analogy is valid. If we act now, we will give ourselves more resources to build a world that wont crash and burn when oil depletes. If we act when the crash occurs, there will be no oil to build that world. That world will be gone. Lost to the world of pipe dreams.
Shoestrings.
Turns out your shoestrings are coated in oil, and will all disappear the at the moment of oil depletion.

I am not at the point of supporting agalmic anarchy right now. Right now, I am questioning the ability of your government and/or money to stop a crisis. Isn't that what they are for? Doesn't look to me like they are doing too well. Looks to me like the systems you advocate are about to completely and utterly fail. Forget whether or not anarchy or agalmics work, it looks to me like government and money aren't even an option.

Or am I wrong? Maybe the US government wont save its people, but is there any government in the world that will be able to save its people?
With no oil to fuel the harvesting machinery? No power to run the mill? No trucks to deliver the ingredients? No power to preheat the oven to 275 degrees Fahrenheit? Fat chance.

And don't even get me started on cake.
Keep him away from the oil! He'll torch the remaining fuel right into thin air!

Blasted dragons... Come back for your revenge have ye?!
 
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Oil is not a form of energy either. Its a form of energy storage, except we cant store it, only use what has been stored a long time ago.

I think you vastly underestimate the power of the nuclear fusion, equally as much as grandender might underestimate the amount of oil we actually use.
 
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Yes, I think if the organic battery thing comes through, it's the best shot we have. Instead of using a natural resource, we're powering everything with a lifeform. Bacteria and carbon nanotubes. The implications are extreme mind you, and it's a long way off, but it's the only thing that seems sustainable.

Either way, really, as long as we break of our oil dependence. That's the key issue here.
 
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I agree with that but... we have no nanobots. Sadly.

Maybe we humans (we just don't know it yet) are made out of oil, and will dissapear too the day it runs out.

We will do anyways.

WAR BLOOD GORE FEAR DEATH LEADERS TRAITION OPRESSION REVOLUTION DESTRUCTION GRIEF LOSS IGNORANCE NONSENSE CHAOS... the end (It's the end of the world!). Humanity is not prepared for a life without things that we take for granted today. There will be no "after". As said before, we have no nanobots, and no oil version 2.0. It will a downfall, a return (hopefully) to the middle ages. We may even end up scratching our asses and living on trees.
 
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Humans, rats and cockroaches have something in common: they all will survive no matter what. What sets us humans apart thought is that we will constantly keep on developing. We will NEVER backtrack!
 
And the funny thing about that is that none of those are sustainable. You can't power a country with solar panels.

Actually in a recent article in New Scientist they showed that you could power the whole of Europe and north Africa through a giant renewable energy grid. Basically you'd have the solar panels in the sunny places, the wind turbines in the windy places, and the hydro plants in the rivery places. And so on.

The only problem is getting the governments of all the countries to switch to it, which won't be happening any time soon. :p
 
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Hydroelectric is not very eco friendly.

It disrupts the natural flow of things...quite literally.

The rest is good. Though I believe wind would be the best idea for 'mass power' and these ocean sort of things...'tide mills' I forget the real term. Solar panels are more efficient for individual buildings usage. (for now anyway)
 
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Oil is not a form of energy either. Its a form of energy storage, except we cant store it, only use what has been stored a long time ago.
That's a very good point.
I think you vastly underestimate the power of the nuclear fusion, equally as much as grandender might underestimate the amount of oil we actually use.
Possibly. The problem is, some of the materials needed to create nuclear power plants are found, like fossil fuels. If we are to do this anyway, the only methods we currently have of building and maintaining nuclear power plants requires fossil fuels. We aren't exactly pouring all our oil into doing that now are we?
Instead of using a natural resource, we're powering everything with a lifeform.
Life, like oil and hydrogen, is not a source of energy. It is merely a form of energy storage.
Either way, really, as long as we break of our oil dependence. That's the key issue here.
Everything relies on oil. Including the people working on oil independent technology. Without oil, we wont be able to carry on oil independence research, let alone producing oil independent products.
Going green ftw.
Too little, too late. In my community, the first thing I am doing is to ensure that the people of my community will have sustenance. After that is taken care of, we might tackle energy problems.
WAR BLOOD GORE FEAR DEATH LEADERS TRAITION OPRESSION REVOLUTION DESTRUCTION GRIEF LOSS IGNORANCE NONSENSE CHAOS...
Without oil to fuel it? Fat chance. It's going to come down to food. Who has it and who does not. If we all made our own garden, there would be enough food for all of us. If we do not, the people caught unprepared will either die, or try to take your food. I'm working to make sure my community is one of the ones with food. I figured I'd make this thread as a heads up to other people, so they can prepare while they can still do it easily (with oil).
Humanity is not prepared for a life without things that we take for granted today.
In terms or stockpiles? No. In terms of ability to make stockpiles? Yes. When oil begins to deplete, the stockpiles we had before will disappear, and unless we start making new ones now, there are people that will go unfed. Oil is going to deplete, soon, and as a result, food will disappear, unless we do something right now. This wont kill everyone, but it will likely kill millions. The question you need to ask is, "Will I be one of those people that die?"
We can use the current suply to jumpstart its production.
Yes. We can. Unless there is a grassroots movement to do exactly that, right now, we will burn up the oil we need to do that, and become unable to do that.
The only problem is getting the governments of all the countries to switch to it, which won't be happening any time soon.
We don't need the governments to do it. Anyone can step up and make a renewable energy power plant. We better start doing it now, or we wont be able to do it at all.
Let's make a pile. Less people = less need for oil xP
There's no need for that. Less oil => less people anyway. Unless there is a grassroots movement to make lack of oil not kill us.

I dunno about you, but I plan to live to at least 30. In order to do this, I need food. Since my current source of food could disappear any day now, I'm going to get my community making the food it needs to feed its members, and then some.
 
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Oil won't run out for a couple more decades, and some fusion research looks promising

I especially like the company thats using giant magnetically driven pistons to compress the Fusion matter, Lasers are for pussys USE GIANT PISTONS!
 
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From Wiki
Geologists view crude oil and natural gas as the product of compression and heating of ancient organic materials (i.e. kerogen) over geological time. Formation of petroleum occurs from hydrocarbon pyrolysis, in a variety of mostly endothermic reactions at high temperature and/or pressure.[13] Today's oil formed from the preserved remains of prehistoric zooplankton and algae, which had settled to a sea or lake bottom in large quantities under anoxic conditions (the remains of prehistoric terrestrial plants, on the other hand, tended to form coal). Over geological time the organic matter mixed with mud, and was buried under heavy layers of sediment resulting in high levels of heat and pressure (known as diagenesis). This caused the organic matter to chemically change, first into a waxy material known as kerogen which is found in various oil shales around the world, and then with more heat into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons in a process known as catagenesis.

Basically, dead things from the Cambrian squished and heated make oil.

Yes we're burning corpses
 
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There are factories that make amounts of oil with like turkey bits and stuff; dinner leftovers, basically. Also, Nuclear energy is one of the greenest and efficient forms of energy out there. My friend's father is a nuclear engineer.

Anyways, solutions for surviving the impending crisis:
1. Convince an attractive member of the opposite sex that it would be worth your mutual time to touch each other
2. Kill yourself
3. ????
4. PROFI... wait. Survival...
 
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Nuclear Energy leaves waste that cannot be safely destroyed and has to take up a large amount of space if produced at a large enough quantity. How is that clean at all? If your friend's father was a cigarette spokesmen you'd probably be saying weed was worse than tobbacco.
 
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Oil won't run out for a couple more decades
Much more notable and qualified individuals say otherwise. I'm going to have to pick them over you. Consider the implications of you being wrong. It is entirely reasonable for me to think we have already passed peak oil.
Nuclear energy is one of the greenest and efficient forms of energy out there.
It seems to me that nuclear power is a bit expensive.
...And controversial.

The question is, if we were to put all our remaining oil into building power plants, then by the time we have spent all the oil, how much power will we be getting from the newly built power plants? A question I am nowhere near qualified to answer. Or to verify answers thereto. I think the question of whether or not you will have food to eat in one year's time is far more important.
 
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Nuclear Energy leaves waste that cannot be safely destroyed and has to take up a large amount of space if produced at a large enough quantity. How is that clean at all? If your friend's father was a cigarette spokesmen you'd probably be saying weed was worse than tobbacco.
You get rid of it by burying it in a mountain or launching it into space for lulz. And yes, I know that current nuclear power plants stick it in barrels on-site. Also, France of all nations has (had, possibly) nuclear power plants. All your arguments against nuclear power are invalid.
 
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I mean that France, who are perceived to be a bunch of arrogant wimps, has nuclear power plants. If they can do it, so can anyone else.
Isn't pretty much everyone, who can afford it, using nuclear power? I mean even Finland has Nuclear Power Plants... Unless I'm missing your point (no offence).
 
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Hungary has only one, which is slowly closing down due to the lack of funds. Building nuclear power plants would be a good idea, but they are difficult to build and maintain. The idea also meets a lot of resistence from the public.
 
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The governments need to be involved if we're going to make a supergrid.
It is already too late to do anything like that. The problem has been ignored for long enough that even if we used 100% of the remaining oil to invest in the perfect alternative, it would not be enough. That's why I'm advocating local action. We wont be able to rely on resources from thousands of miles away. The only place our food and electricity is going to come from is our immediate surroundings.

Also, since when did government come before people?
Shoestrings, economies of scale, capital, etc.
If nobody could do it, it would never be done. That it is done is proof that it can be done.

"Where there's a will, there's a way."
(Unless there is not actually a way (read: "no oil").)
 
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Isn't pretty much everyone, who can afford it, using nuclear power? I mean even Finland has Nuclear Power Plants... Unless I'm missing your point (no offence).
American liberals are pussies about Nuclear power. The last plant was either built or shut down (don't remember) in the early 80s.
 
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